Dallas City News

In a surprise, the Dallas Cowboys didn’t draft a running back to bolster their rushing attack. Instead they opted to use familiar faces to handle the rushing duties this season. The Cowboys re-signed Ezekiel Elliott after the front office spent months showering him with public affection. They also re-signed last year’s backup, Rico Dowdle. Second-year runner Deuce Vaughn is also vying for a spot in the backfield. Meanwhile, Royce Freeman was added by the Cowboys to provide a veteran assurance should things falter at the top of the depth chart.

Speaking of the top of the depth chart, Elliott and Dowdle will battle for the top spot. Dowdle has garnered attention in the past two seasons, culminating in taking the number two job away from Malik Davis last season. Could Dowdle be in store for something greater this season? And could he beat out Elliott as the team’s leading rusher in 2024? Here’s where both runners stand coming into this season and how the numbers project who will be the team’s leading rusher.

Rico Dowdle, even entering his fifth year, remains an enigma. While we’ve caught glimpses of his potential throughout his career, his true capabilities in an expanded role are still a mystery. On the one hand, with Elliott entering his ninth season, the Cowboys are in need of a younger running back. On the other hand, Dowdle has yet to demand a more significant role within the offense. The Cowboys are left to project what Dowdle could bring to the table this season.

Dowdle has less than 100 carries for his NFL career so we have a small sample size. As a prospect, here’s what we know. Dowdle has good but not elite speed (4.54 40-yard dash at the NFL combine). He also sees the field well to find cutback lanes but isn’t an overtly elusive runner. Dowdle does show some power when running the ball and is a physical back.

Dowdle was able to rush for 361 yards on 89 carries backing up Tony Pollard in 2023. He managed 4.1 yards per carry and two touchdowns.

The Cowboys front office has made no secret of their strong affinity for Ezekiel Elliott and what he accomplished in his first stint with the Cowboys. Elliott is easily the most decorated runner on the roster. Because of the team’s adoration for Elliott, he may have the edge heading into training camp in terms of the depth chart.

One of the primary reasons Elliott is back with the team is because the Cowboys took a step back in pass protection from the running backs last season. The Cowboys could have two rookie starters on the offensive line, so Elliott’s experience keeping a clean pocket for Dak Prescott is important. This likely will lead to Elliott getting carries if and when Prescott checks out of passes to running plays on what appears to be passing downs.

When comparing Elliott and Dowdle, the latter is the more explosive runner and can create more explosive plays. Per playerprofiler.com, Dowdle was ninth in yards per touch created in 2023 with 3.92 yards per touch. Conversely, Elliott ranked 34th in that category. Furthermore, Elliott was ranked 150th in rushing EPA at -55.3.

Over Elliott’s last three seasons, he has carried the ball 652 times for 2,520 yards for an average of 3.86 yards per rush. Also in the same span, the Cowboys’ top-two highest volume runners in terms of carries have averaged 377 carries per year in that span, with the disparity between the two ranging from 38 carries (Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard in 2022) to 163 (Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle in 2023) in that time.

To project who will lead the Cowboys in rushing, we’ll keep things simple, split the difference down the middle, and assume that Elliott finishes with approximately 60 more carries than Dowdle. Dowdle has rushed for four yards per carry in his career. Taking our average of 377 carries for the top-two rushers in terms of carries gives Elliott 220 carries for 849 yards and Dowdle 157 carries for 628, thus making Elliott your 2024 Cowboys rushing champion.