Dallas City News

The Dallas Cowboys are back from the bye this week and immediately have about as tall of a test as one could conjure up for them. At perhaps their lowest point in the Mike McCarthy era, the Cowboys now have to travel to face the team who has completely owned them lately in the San Francisco 49ers. The longtime rivals have met three times since consistent regular-season success found the Cowboys in 2021, twice in the playoffs and once in the last regular season, and the Niners have won each and every time.

The last Dallas win over San Francisco came in 2020 when both teams were so lost at sea that their game against one another at AT&T Stadium was actually flexed out of NBC’s Sunday Night Football slot (Jaylon Smith had a memorable line about that, to say the least). Incidentally that is where the two will tango this week.

Given the slew of injuries that San Fran is dealing with this game feels a bit like that 2020 affair with it serving as the best on-paper opportunity for the Cowboys to win. Recall that Dallas has not won on the road against the 49ers since they visited in 2017 when Jeff Heath very famously had to take over kicking duties for Dan Bailey on a moment’s notice. Yes, it has been that long.

Unfortunately projections for the contest are not exactly suggesting that this will come easy or happen in general.

Player projections for Sunday night are calling for less offensive production from Dallas than they did against the Lions

Something we do every week around here is take a look at what the NFL Pro model is projecting from Dallas Cowboys skill position players. No prediction is ever exact or should be trusted completely, but it is interesting perspective to consider ahead of each Cowboys game.

Before we get to this week let’s take a second to fact-check how the most recent projections fared when Dallas hosted the Detroit Lions.

• Projected Dak Prescott vs. Detroit: 260.3 yards, 1.7 TDs, 0.7 INTs, 13.9 rush yards, 0.1 rush TDs
  Actual: 178 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 rush yard
• Projected Rico Dowdle vs. Detroit: 49.7 yards, 0.3 TDs, 2.2 rec, 16 rec yards, 0.1 rec TDs
  Actual: 25 yards, 5 rec, 30 rec yards
• Projected CeeDee Lamb vs. Detroit: 6 rec, 76.2 yards, 0.4 TDs
  Actual: 7 rec, 89 yards
• Projected Jalen Tolbert vs. Detroit: 2.6 rec, 30.7 yards, 0.2 TDs
  Actual: 4 rec, 43 yards
• Projected Jake Ferguson vs. Detroit: 4.7 rec, 49.3 yards, 0.4 TDs
  Actual: 3 rec, 11 yards

The Cowboys did not score a touchdown at all against the Lions so obviously nobody had anything going on in that capacity, but it is interesting to see that CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Tolbert both outperformed their respective projections and that Rico Dowdle did from a receiving standpoint. It should be mentioned though that the game in question got out of hand and that Dallas was playing catch up for most of it which impacts this kind of thing.

Here is what NFL Pro is projecting for Sunday night in Santa Clara.

For the most part every Cowboys player here has a lower projection than they did against the Lions, the only one who is higher across the board is Jalen Tolbert.

Historically these matchups have often come down to the 49ers’ defense stifling the Cowboys’ offense, but the NFL Pro model doesn’t take history into account. It goes off of who the teams are currently from an objective standpoint and the reality is that the Cowboys have not been all too great which is impacting the results.

Consider the advantages that NFL Pro has outlined from a passing standpoint.

One of the only areas where the Cowboys seem to have an aerial advantage is against the blitz which (to the chagrin of many) has long been a strength of Dak Prescott’s. But we are deep enough into that reality where many teams have stopped sending a ton of pressure at him for this very reason, plus they know that they can get home with four men more often than not (so to speak) so the need is not great to risk it all. Just look at how stout the Niners’ defense is when not blitzing. It is their top strength.

What about running the ball, though? Conversations around the Cowboys continue to involve Derrick Henry because he is ripping off big runs left and right and they, um, are not.

It will hardly shock you to see that San Francisco practically runs the board in projected advantages on the ground.

Consider that 49ers running back Jordan Mason has forced 53 missed tackles this season which is the most in the NFL. Also consider that the Cowboys defense has a missed tackle on 15.8% of tackle opportunities this season which is, of course it is, also the most in the NFL.

It is going to be a tough night at the office for the Cowboys. We will see what they’ve got.