Dallas City News

The 49ers have become known for their defensive dominance as of late, something the Cowboys are all too familiar with. Since 2021, during which Dallas is 0-3 against them, they’ve posted a negative EPA/play against this San Francisco defense each time, with their most recent matchup being the worst single-game EPA/play figure of the Mike McCarthy era. There’s a real chance, however, of changing that tune this Sunday night when the Cowboys travel to the bay area.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan runs the offense for the 49ers, but he’s not completely uninvolved in the defense. When Shanahan first got hired in San Francisco, he brought in Robert Saleh as his defensive coordinator. After several years of stout defensive play, Saleh left for the Jets head coaching job, from which he was fired just a few weeks ago. Saleh’s replacement – DeMeco Ryans, promoted from within the organization – elevated the defense even further and parlayed that success into the Texans job.

Shanahan moved quickly to replace Ryans and selected Steve Wilks, an outside hire. Wilks was well traveled in the NFL, having spent one season as the head coach of the Cardinals and holding three different coordinator jobs throughout the league. He came to San Francisco after going 6-6 as the interim head coach of the Panthers; despite pleas from several Panthers players, owner David Tepper passed on Wilks in favor of Frank Reich, who didn’t even last a full year.

All of that to say that hiring Wilks was viewed by many as a jackpot kind of win for Shanahan and the 49ers. Wilks was renowned for his leadership and ability to relate to his players, and his defensive acumen was well documented as well. Early on, things looked good too, and Wilks’ defense made several great offenses look terrible in addition to the Cowboys. But tensions grew as the season went on, with Shanahan publicly criticizing his own coordinator several times.

Ultimately, it resulted in Shanahan firing Wilks just three days after losing to the Chiefs (again) in the Super Bowl. Shanahan cited an uneasy relationship with star linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw as a reason for the split, noting that both Saleh and Ryans were linebackers coaches by trade whereas Wilks has always coached defensive backs. To replace Wilks, Shanahan promoted pass game coordinator Nick Sorensen to coordinator and brought in former Chargers head coach Brandon Staley – who coached linebackers prior to becoming a coordinator – as the assistant head coach of the defense.

So far, the move has been an utter failure. Wilks’ defense took a step back relative to the 49ers’ standards, but they were still elite on that side of the ball: Ryans left San Francisco with his unit ranking first in both EPA/play and DVOA, and Wilks finished eighth in EPA/play and fourth in DVOA. If that was considered a step back, Sorensen and Staley must be akin to returning to the Stone Age.

Currently, the 49ers are 14th in EPA/play, which is the lowest they’ve ranked since 2018. Their run defense has regressed sharply, ranking 22nd in EPA/rush and 22nd in run stuff rate. All in all, they’re giving up 5.3 yards per play defensively, which is just the second time in the Shanahan era they’ve allowed over five yards per play.

Schematically, this defense is still very much the same as it’s always been. Saleh and Ryans employed a zone-heavy scheme that made frequent use of two-deep safety shells and primarily rushed only four out of extra wide alignments, putting pressure on offensive tackles and forcing quarterbacks to throw hot against seven defenders all watching his eyes with anticipation. Wilks tried to integrate some of his schematic background into the mix, particularly his penchant for blitzing, but much of that is gone now.

Only three teams are blitzing less than the 49ers right now, and they’ve effectively gone back to their roots after Wilks’ attempt to spice things up. The problem for the 49ers is that their pass rush hasn’t been getting home as often – they’re 10th in pressure rate and 13th in sacks, both low marks for them – and opposing quarterbacks are averaging 2.78 seconds per throw. In short, they’re finally getting time to stand in the pocket and find the open spots in the zone coverage.

This scheme fundamentally relies on four great pass rushers, and San Francisco lacks that right now. Last year, they had six players with at least 30 pressures and four of them play elsewhere right now. The two returners are Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave, the latter of whom went on the injured reserve three weeks ago. The team planned to rely on the emerging Drake Jackson in addition to signing free agents Yetur Gross-Matos, Leonard Floyd, and Maliek Collins. However, Jackson and Gross-Matos are on the injured reserve, which has resulted in Floyd and Collins seeing more work than initially expected.

Making matters more complicated is the absence of both Greenlaw – who tore his ACL in the Super Bowl and has yet to play this year – and safety Talanoa Hufanga, who landed on the injured reserve several weeks ago. Both players were considered enforcers in the pass game, perfectly complementing the all-around playmaking ability of Warner, but the secondary has sprung a few leaks with them out.

Greenlaw’s replacement, De’Vondre Campbell, has been picked on plenty. He’s second on the team in targets and, among linebackers with at least 25 targets this year, Campbell’s 90% completion rate and 114.6 passer rating allowed both rank in the top three. He’s been a significant downgrade from Greenlaw, and it’s resulted in the defense as a whole getting stretched out more to accommodate the weakness.

The good news for the 49ers is they get to face a Cowboys offense that’s struggling to find its own rhythm right now. Only three teams have fewer red zone appearances right now, and the Cowboys have the second-worst red zone touchdown percentage. Most of their points are coming from Brandon Aubrey, and they haven’t scored a touchdown since the final seconds of the Steelers game.

One of these units is going to get back on track in this game. Dak Prescott has historically struggled against this defense, though this is the worst this defense has been in quite some time. Coming out of the bye, Dallas is hoping for some better chemistry and effort between Prescott and his receivers. Usually, facing the 49ers right off the bat would be a death sentence, but they may actually stand a chance in this one.