Dallas City News

Welcome back football, we have missed you dearly! With Week 1 officially in the books, the Cowboys sit at a perfect 1-0 record following a rather impressive win over the Browns on the road. They were underdogs in this one and found a way to win by multiple scores in one of the most dominant wins of the week. Of course, it’s only the first week, so how much stock can you really put in these games?

Well, that’s where the analytics roundup comes in, providing hard data and numbers in place of vibes and overreactions (though vibes and overreactions are also welcome). While these advanced statistics offer a clearer picture of what has happened, it’s important to remember that we’re dealing with an incredibly small sample size after just one week; in fact, the DVOA grades used throughout don’t even have an adjustment for opponent yet, as that takes a few weeks to develop. Regardless, let’s see where the Cowboys stand after Week 1.

The rankings here pass the sniff test with flying colors. The offense left a lot to be desired, but the defense and special teams were stellar. The Cowboys’ team DVOA grade of 72.4% is also outrageously high; in 544 total regular season games played last year, there were just 24 times a team broke a 70% DVOA grade, and the Cowboys did it right off the bat. That’s a testament to just how thorough of a win they had.

Let’s pay attention to the DAVE grade, though. This metric combines the teams’ actual DVOA grades with their DVOA-based preseason predictions, with the actual grade carrying more weight as the number of games played goes up this season. We can see here that, relative to data-based expectations, the Cowboys are pretty close to where they actually graded out this week. The biggest difference is their offense, as they’re expected (and likely) to fare better throughout the year than they did this past Sunday.

Now let’s look at the team tiers, which uses expected points added (EPA) per play on offense and defense to measure teams’ total efficiency. EPA is similar to DVOA as far as what it measures (in a word, efficiency), but EPA will not adjust for strength of schedule as the season goes on. In other words, DVOA measures how good a team is relative to who they’ve played, while EPA is just measuring how good they’ve been in games.

That’s why this chart, after just one week, basically just shows each team as the inverse of whoever they played in Week 1. The Saints demolished the Panthers, so New Orleans is all the way in the top right while Carolina is all the way in the bottom left. The Lions and Rams went to overtime, so they’re practically touching on the chart. This will become more valuable next week, but it accurately reflects the Cowboys’ performance thus far.

Offense

The offense didn’t have a very efficient week, and that’s not a big surprise to anyone. They moved the ball well enough to score two touchdowns and kick four field goals, but that’s not going to cut it most weeks. Of course, the Cowboys also won’t be facing the reigning Defensive Player of the Year for the rest of the season, so that helps. Assuming the Browns defense remains stout this season, the negative hit from this game will be reduced as schedule adjustments factor in. Still, improvements are needed.

One positive note, though, is that the Cowboys’ run game had a solid day. They’re teetering on the brink of a top 10 rushing attack right now. Ezekiel Elliott was effective in his 10 carries and showed some value as a pass catcher. Rico Dowdle’s stat line wasn’t as great – 26 yards on eight carries – but there’s reason for optimism: Dowdle was the only running back in this game to force a missed tackle and notch a run for more than 10 yards. His explosiveness popped on film, even if he didn’t get too many opportunities to use it in this one.

Yes, Dak Prescott was shaky in this game. His advanced metrics are very bad no matter what you look at. That said, it’s pretty clear that this offense was not operating as it normally does. Prescott’s 2.34 seconds per throw was the second fastest trigger in Week 1, and 19 of his 32 attempts traveled less than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That alone is indicative of what the Cowboys were trying – and not trying – to do against this defense.

Another thing to consider is that Prescott had three dropped passes in this game, which could’ve bumped his completion rate up from 59.4% to 68.8%, much more in line with his usual performance. That said, Prescott did have two turnover worthy throws, in addition to a strip sack that was recovered by the Cowboys, which is uncharacteristic for him. The numbers look bad either way, but it’s unlikely to be predictive of Prescott’s season-long production.

This game brought us our first look at rookies Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe in a meaningful game, and they held up fairly well. Guyton allowed a sack and two pressures, but considering who he was going up against, that’s a job well done. Beebe was one of three rookie linemen in the league to not give up a single pressure, and his win rate stats were impressive.

The stats for the line as a whole are also encouraging, coming in as a borderline top 10 unit. Their pressure rate and adjusted sack rate rank lower, but that’s more a reflection of how close every teams’ rates are right now; for context, Dallas finished last year with a pressure rate of 17.0% and an adjusted sack rate of 6.8% and ranked sixth and 12th, respectively. It was a good first game for the offensive line, especially considering the opponent.

Defense

Now we get to the fun part. Mike Zimmer’s defense definitely lived up to the hype in Week 1. Any concerns about the pass rush or takeaways leaving with Dan Quinn were quickly put to rest. In total, the Cowboys generated 40 pressures against the Browns. Micah Parsons led with 11 but there were five other players with three or more pressures, including rookie Marshawn Kneeland with five in his debut.

Perhaps most impressive, though, was the run defense bottling up Cleveland’s well-oiled rushing attack. That earned them a really strong run defense DVOA grade and the third best run stop win rate. The reason why their EPA/rush allowed is so low in comparison comes down to the fact that this metric counts all quarterback rushing yards, whereas DVOA discounts scramble yards since they’re technically a passing down. With Deshaun Watson accounting for nearly half of the Browns’ rushing yards, that explains the discrepancy here in what was a good day for the Cowboys’ run defense.

As mentioned before, the takeaways are very much still a thing in Dallas. Eric Kendricks got the first interception of the season, thanks to a Micah Parsons tip drill, but Trevon Diggs came up with one too in his first game back from an ACL tear. DeMarcus Lawrence forced a fumble on one of his sacks, but Cleveland managed to recover it. Caelen Carson had three near-picks as well, though he had to settle for a pass breakup statistic instead.

All in all, this was a good game for the secondary. Carson was predictably targeted a lot, but the rookie mostly held his own. There were very few open lanes to throw, and Watson only attempted passes beyond 10 yards from the line of scrimmage, completing just three of them. The Cowboys will happily take that, and it makes winning a lot easier.