Cowboys vs Saints: Writer predictions for first home game of 2024
The Cowboys notched a blowout win over the Browns in Week 1, but now they get to play their first game of the year in front of their home crowd. They were 8-0 in AT&T Stadium during the regular season last year, but will that streak continue? The Saints are riding high after demolishing the Panthers last week too. What do our writers expect to happen?
When New Orleans has the ball
Play with clean eyes
The Saints have a new coach calling the plays on offense this year in Klint Kubiak, son of the legendary Gary Kubiak, who came over from the 49ers. He’s brought the same type of offense that Kyle Shanahan has demonized the Cowboys with in recent years, and his first game in New Orleans suggested big things are in the works.
However, Mike Zimmer has a history of doing well against this type of offense, and Kubiak was part of his staff in Minnesota for four years. Zimmer knows that much of this offense is predicated on eye candy and misdirection to confuse defenses. He’ll need his players to play with clean eyes, not get distracted by all the motion and misdirection, and stick to their fundamentals. If Dallas can do that, they have more than enough talent to beat this Saints offense.
When Dallas has the ball
Spread the ball out
The Saints have enjoyed a period of dominance since Dennis Allen, now the head coach, first started calling plays for the defense. Even last year, as the defense underwent a bit of a youth movement, they remained one of the league’s best units. But there are still holes in this defense to be exploited, especially when it comes to pure speed.
The Cowboys have plenty of that, with CeeDee Lamb being the most obvious instance. Beyond him, though, Brandin Cooks and KaVontae Turpin can pose problems for this secondary and even Deuce Vaughn could see some work against a defensive line that’s a bit bigger than your average defense. Case in point: the Cowboys can beat this defense if they spread the ball out to everyone, instead of just feeding their newly wealthy receiver, which would allow New Orleans to simply devote all their resources to taking Lamb away.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (0-1):
I’m one of many who was wrong about the opener, and just as glad I was. But there are still lingering concerns for me. Was the win over the Browns mostly driven by their banged up offensive line and Deshaun Watson’s ineptitude? Did the offense just take their foot off the gas in the second half?
They need a complete game that doesn’t rely on a smothering defense. This early, we are still trying to figure out teams, and that includes the Saints. They have a quarterback in Derek Carr who has gone toe to toe with the Cowboys, although that was a long time ago in NFL terms.
I’m not predicting this with any real confidence as I wait to gather more data, but give me a 30-27 Dallas win in a bit of a shootout where Dak proves he deserves that new deal.
Matt Holleran (0-1):
Week One went much better than I expected for the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas looked dominant in their win over the Browns, and their defense especially was extremely impressive. This week, the Cowboys host the New Orleans Saints in a game that will be very interesting.
I see Dallas’ defense picking up right where they left off last week, causing problems for the Saints’ offense. The Saints do have a solid defense, so I think we’ll see a similar offensive output from the Cowboys this week as we did last. In the end, the spread is 6.5 points and I think that’s near perfect line.
Give me the Cowboys, 24-17.
Jess Haynie (1-0):
Dallas and New Orleans posted two of the more one-sided wins of Week 1. The Cowboys’ was arguably more impressive, on the road against one of the league’s top defenses in Cleveland, while the Saints bullied a terrible Panthers team at home. New Orleans’ went 9-8 in 2023 beating up on bad teams and losing to good ones, and they still have the same core in their roster and coaching staff.
So if that pattern continues, this is one Dallas should win. The Cowboys went 8-0 at home in the last regular season, including wins against Detroit, Philadelphia, and Seattle. Whether or not TE Jake Ferguson plays is a concerning factor, but I don’t know that it swings the outcome.
I’ll go Cowboys 27, Saints 23.
Brandon Loree (0-1):
You couldn’t ask for anything better for a Week 2 matchup and a home opener for the Cowboys. Two 2-0 teams that shook off the stink from a season ago, hoping to change their preconceived narrative and make it to the postseason. Many will remember the matchup with the Carolina Panthers in 2021 when they came to AT&T Stadium at 3-0. They were a fraudulent team. This version of the New Orleans team feels different.
Dennis Allen seems to have retooled his approach as a coach and is connecting with his players better than before. The defense is his baby, and they destroyed the Panthers hopes in Week 1 before their season began. The Cowboys are a tough matchup at home, having won their last 16 matches in Arlington. The momentum Dallas showed against the Cleveland Browns should carry into a close game, with Dak Prescott and Co. winning.
Cowboys win, 24-20.
Mike Poland (1-0):
This game is all about pressure. For the Cowboys, they held their own by allowing the 10th-fewest sacks last season. For the Saints, they have a defensive that produced 4th-fewest sacks making this a huge mismatch. Dak will have more time to deliver, find his target and get the ball where it needs to be.
Conversely, the Cowboys defense will need to do what it did last week and get in the quarterbacks face. When Derek Carr was sacked two or more times in a game last season he struggled. Of the eight games the Saints lost, Carr was sacked twice or more in six of those losses. Three of those games he failed to throw a touchdown.
Cowboys win in their home opener, 28-20.
Dana Bartholomew (0-1):
The Saints completely beat up on the Panthers last week, most notably with their running game and quick passing game. I believe the key this week for the Cowboys will be to shut down Alvin Kamara on the ground and make Derek Carr uncomfortable in the pocket. The Cowboys defense proved last week to be very disciplined and I trust our LB’s to keep the successful Saints running plays to a minimum. While Carr was sacked only once last week, he is going to be under a lot more pressure against this Cowboys defense.
As for the Cowboys offense, I’m looking for them to build off of Week 1. The rookies on the O-line proved that they can hang with the best and Dak and co. love to put on a show at AT&T Stadium.
I’ll take the Cowboys over the Saints 30-20.
Brian Martin (0-1):
The Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints both dominated their opponents in the season opener, but only one team will walk away with the “W” in this Week 2 matchup. I fully expect that to be the Cowboys. They didn’t have the benefit of playing at home against one of the worst teams in the league like the Saints did last week. They won a tough game on the road and will carry that confidence over into this matchup in their first home game of the season.
Because of that, give me the Cowboys 27-17 with another impressive performance in all three phases the game.
Chris Halling (0-1):
The Dallas Cowboys give the New Orleans Saints a reality check on Sunday, continuing their defensive dominance. Micah Parsons finishes the game with 2+ sacks, and the offense gets rolling against an easier defense.
Cowboys come out on top 31-13.
RJ Ochoa (1-0):
New Orleans looked incredible last week and I am inclined to believe in it a little bit more than most. While I recognize that the Panthers are not a great team, the advanced data supports that the Saints handled them in the way that elite teams do. That being said I also believe that the Cowboys were quite special last week and are similarly not being given their proper flowers. I’ll take Dallas to win in a game that they salt away over the course of the second half.
Cowboys win, 30-26.
David Howman (1-0):
I put way more stock into the Cowboys crushing the Browns than I do the Saints crushing the Panthers. Apparently so does Las Vegas, since they have the Cowboys favored by nearly a whole touchdown. I don’t think that’s far off from the talent gap between these two teams.
That said, this game draws an officiating crew that tends to penalize the home team way more and, in turn, has seen one of the worst win percentages for home teams of any referee crew. That leads me to believe this game will be very uneven in the penalty category and ultimately make things closer than they should be. Still, I trust the Cowboys to pull it out in the end, but not after making us all chew our nails down to the nub.
Cowboys win, 34-31.