Dallas City News

When Mike Zimmer was first brought in as the Cowboys’ newest defensive coordinator, some (including yours truly) pointed to his track record of success against coaches who hailed from Shanahan tree of offense as the ingredient that’s been missing in Dallas.

So far, the results have been mixed, to say the least. Zimmer’s unit looked great against Kevin Stefanski’s Browns offense in Week 1, though the quarterback certainly had a lot to do with that. They also looked good against Arthur Smith’s Steelers, though Pittsburgh was working with a backup quarterback and already wasn’t necessarily known for offensive fireworks.

Elsewhere, Zimmer’s defense was lit up by Klint Kubiak and the Saints, who have yet to win a game or even break 30 points since. And while Ben Johnson isn’t technically a Shanahan disciple, he’s incorporated enough of Shanahan’s trademark concepts into the Lions offense that we can point to their shellacking two weeks ago as another failure against the scheme.

Now, Zimmer will get a chance to face the master himself, as the Cowboys travel to San Francisco for their fifth matchup with the 49ers in as many seasons. And for the first time in a long time, Kyle Shanahan’s offense doesn’t look like a defensive coordinator’s nightmare.

In fairness, that’s mostly due to injuries hitting all over this unit. Christian McCaffrey has yet to suit up this season, and the anticipation is he won’t return until after the 49ers’ bye next week. His backup, Elijah Mitchell, was placed on injured reserve during the preseason, which has meant third-string running back Jordan Mason has been the bell-cow for this run-heavy offense.

Shanahan’s scheme is built around the outside zone run, which aims to neutralize the litany of edge rushers around this league by running right at them instead of letting them do what they do best. The 49ers are calling 67.9% of their runs outside the tackles; only two teams have a higher rate of outside runs, and it’s the aforementioned Kubiak in New Orleans and Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who hails from the Sean McVay tree, itself a branch of the Shanahan tree.

Mason has held up well, too. San Francisco ranks 11th in EPA/rush and sixth in rush DVOA, and Mason leads the league in both yards after contact and runs of 10+ yards while placing just behind Derrick Henry in total rushing yards. However, Mason ranks just 22nd among running backs in rush success rate; combined with his explosion stats, this indicates that Mason has some boom-or-bust traits to his performance so far this season.

The Shanahan offense is built on the run game precisely because of how much it opens things up for the passing game. However, injuries to their star pass catchers have complicated matters quite a bit there. Just last week, Brandon Aiyuk suffered a torn ACL and is out for the rest of the year. Deebo Samuel was hospitalized following last week’s game due to pneumonia. And George Kittle, who missed a game earlier this year with a hamstring injury, has been limited in practice with a sprained foot.

The one who’s struggled the most from all of this is Brock Purdy. While the former Mr. Irrelevant hasn’t been a complete disaster, he’s had a down season by his standards. As it stands right now, both his QBR and EPA/dropback would easily be career lows and he’s thrown the second-most interceptions in the NFL.

Worst of all is the fact that Purdy has become more hesitant in the passing game than ever before. His 3.10 seconds per throw leads the league and is a massive uptick for him, simultaneously leading to the highest pressure rate he’s seen in his young career. Per Pro Football Focus, Purdy’s long time to throw has made him responsible for 24.7% of his pressures this year, the third-highest among full time starters. To make matters worse, Purdy has been worse than ever when under pressure: his completion rate drops from 68.7% to 53.6% and his passer rating drops from 96.2 to 80.5, all significant dropoffs.

All of this has come prior to losing Aiyuk for the year, too. Purdy will face a Cowboys defense still without Micah Parsons, which should help, but Dallas still ranks 10th in pressure rate and they’re averaging 2.85 seconds per pressure, which isn’t a great number but is enough to get the job done against someone holding the ball as long as Purdy right now.

Of course, shutting down Purdy isn’t the key to stopping this offense. Mason may not be the most efficient runner, but he’s still facing a miserable run defense that ranks dead last in EPA/rush. A majority of the rush production Zimmer’s unit has given up this year has also come on runs outside the tackles.

The crazy part is that Dallas is giving up just 1.21 yards before contact per outside rush – sixth best in the NFL – but are giving up 3.42 yards after contact per attempt. In other words, they’re setting the edge properly but not making the tackle. That’s even scarier when you consider that Mason has forced the second-most missed tackles in the NFL thus far.

The formula for stopping the Shanahan offense is no real secret, but knowing how to do it and actually doing it are two very different things. Stout run defense and fundamentally sound coverage schemes are vital, and those have been the two biggest struggles for this defense so far. Injuries to key skill players have made things harder for San Francisco, but they still have the tools to take advantage of this Cowboys defense. It will take a high effort performance from Zimmer’s group to contain this offense Sunday night.