Dallas City News

Whether you’re just a fan of the team or someone with a financial interest, multiple oddsmakers have projected the Dallas Cowboys at 10.5 wins for the 2024 season. How should we feel about that? Do we expect the team to come in right around 10 or 11 wins, eclipse that mark, or fail to get into double digits this year?

When you know that the Cowboys are bringing back the same head coach, quarterback, and star defensive player who’ve led them to three straight 12-win seasons, projecting them to at least stay near that mark is logical. Even if pieces change around them, as they have during the last three seasons, the trio of Mike McCarthy, Dak Prescott, and Micah Parsons are still a solid foundation for regular-season success.

Okay, so why only 10.5 wins then? If Dallas has cleared that mark in three consecutive seasons, and still has many of its key players including CeeDee Lamb, Zack Martin, Trevon Diggs, and others, why not set the over/under a win or two higher?

Well, it might have something to do with the Cowboys’ seemingly minimalist approach to the offseason. While they have retained major talents at some positions, they’ve also lost starters in Tyron Smith, Tyler Biadsz, Tony Pollard, Leighton Vander Esch, and probably Stephon Gilmore and Jayron Kearse with them We’ve also seen significant role players like Dorance Armstrong and Johnathan Hankins sign elsewhere, plus the release of Michael Gallup. Most of these departures have not yet been offset by additions, and there’s growing concern that Dallas won’t be able to field the same level of talent in 2024 that they did last year.

Of course, this isn’t the first time we’ve heard that. Just a couple years ago in the 2022 offseason, Amari Cooper, La’el Collins, Connor Williams, Randy Gregory, Keanu Neal, and Cedrick Wilson all left the team. Dallas’ free agent additions were again minimal; WR James Washington, LB Anthony Barr, and DE Dante Fowler were really the only consequential signings. And Washington didn’t even help the team that year due to injury and a seemingly bad fit with the offense.

Dallas is surely hoping that their 2024 draft class will help fill the gaps as well as that 2022 class did. They got an immediate starter in Tyler Smith, plus other rookie contributors in Sam Williams, Jake Ferguson, DaRon Bland, and Damone Clark. They also saw growth and increased roles from prospects in previous classes as 2022 saw Trevon Diggs’ breakout year, a Pro Bowl season for Tyler Biadasz, and a strong second-year jump from Osa Odighizuwa.

Clearly, the Cowboys have proven the ability to maintain the status quo even while sustaining free agency losses. They also are hoping that second year for McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer to make offensive changes will yield results, plus the arrival of Mike Zimmer as the new defensive coordinator. But two other factors to consider are their upcoming schedule and the general atmosphere of the team. Even if the talent proves similar to the previous 12-win teams, could the 2024 version be facing a tougher road?

Dallas will have a first-place schedule after winning the NFC East last season, meaning they get the 49ers and Lions as fellow division winners from the conference. They’ll also face the entire AFC North, which yielded three playoff teams in Baltimore, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh last year plus had Cincinnati with a 9-8 record despite QB Joe Burrow’s injury. They also have a potentially rising power in the Houston Texans on the schedule.

Granted, the NFC East should still be a two-horse race between the Cowboys and Eagles while the other two teams deal with issues at quarterback. And the NFC South, which has been a perennial dud for a while, makes up the rest of the schedule. Dallas should be able to milk several wins out of those 10 games, which is probably what Vegas is banking on as well.

But if those AFC North teams, Detroit, Houston, and San Francisco are all as good or better than last year, the Cowboys could be in trouble. Their playoff exits in recent years have shown they can’t stand up to true contenders. Of course, some of these teams won’t be as good as projected due to injuries or other factors. But by that same token, some of the less-threatening teams we mentioned before could be as surprisingly competitive as Houston was in 2023.

On top of the potentially challenging schedule, the Cowboys will have a lame-duck coach in Mike McCarthy and a potentially unsettled future with Dak Prescott. Maybe all the current chatter about rebuilds and reset buttons is just talk, but it becomes more and more real the further we go without changes to the team’s offseason approach. If people start coaching and playing like they already have a foot out the door, this locker room could unravel quickly.

So, what should you make of 10.5 wins? It shows that Vegas believes the team could slip a little this year, but also perceives they could easily be right back to their usual performance level. The x-factors of Zimmer’s arrival and more offensive tweaks could help make the team less predictable but also cause transitional pains. The losses of Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz on the offensive line are significant but could get soothed from the draft.

From a betting perspective, oddsmakers are always trying to make money. Given the current despair among Cowboys fans, many would probably take the under on the idea of Dallas winning 11 games next season. If Vegas is counting on that mob mentality, it’s actually a positive for how the team is projected to perform next season.