Dallas City News

The quarterback wave is complete. The Dallas Cowboys sat back and watched nine quarterbacks sign new deals over the last two years while their franchise quarterback remains unsigned. Dak Prescott has one year left on his contract and the front office has repeatedly stated that he’s their guy, so it would seem apparent that his turn is coming soon.

However, with each new signing, more frustration grows. Some just want it to get done so we don’t have to stress over thinking about life without Prescott. Others are agitated it’s taking so long, believing that dragging this out only costs the team more money. And then there is that other group that would be elated to see him play elsewhere. Unfortunately, for that last group, we have nothing for them as this author will proceed with the assertion that Prescott belongs in Dallas.

The narrative that his price has gone up is popular but isn’t necessarily true. Without knowing what Prescott will receive, it’s hard to say if he’ll cost more. As we have mentioned, his true cost is not reflected by his average annual cost, but rather the percentage of cap space he’ll occupy throughout his contract. For this reason, we have stacked all nine recent QB signings from most to least expensive based on cap percentage.

One thing that stands out is the majority of the more expensive deals occurred last year. Jordan Love is the only quarterback who costs more than some of the QBs who signed a year ago. This is actually good news for the Cowboys. The concern some had was that these lesser-proven QBs could receive overinflated deals exceeding the big guns from a year ago, indicating that the quarterback position has risen in cost. But this is not the case. The price remains teetering around 19% of the cap, which is where we should find Prescott when he signs his new deal.

To provide a frame of reference, here are his estimated costs based on the type of deal he signs. If the Cowboys can secure a five-year deal, that will save them a lot of money in the long run even if his average annual cost is higher than all these other guys (and it will be).

When Prescott signs his new deal, he will be the highest-paid QB in the league, but how expensive he is will depend on how close he gets to that $60 million per year mark. Many still debate what they think his new deal will look like. Before answering that, let’s look at where he stacks up against all these other quarterbacks using five different metrics.

PERFORMANCE

Quarterback rating isn’t the best metric in determining how well a QB plays, but it’s something. Where does Dak rank compared to these other guys?

How much this means to you is a personal choice, but to be in the league for eight years and have a QB rating of almost 100 is an impressive feat. Not only that but in two of his last three seasons, he’s been over 104. Prescott is a good quarterback and there is just no getting around it.

PERFORMANCE IN THE PLAYOFFS

Before you rush down into the comments and talk about how he chokes in the postseason, let’s ask ourselves just how true that is. Yes, he needs to be better and recency bias looms large as three of his last four playoff games haven’t been very good. That said, he doesn’t collapse in the postseason. Overall, he’s been decent.

Surprisingly, Prescott ranks fourth out of the 10 quarterbacks listed. So while many aren’t pleased with how he’s done in the playoffs until this point, most of these other recently paid quarterbacks have performed even worse. Note: Jordan Love has the Cowboys’ defensive debacle to thank for his wowing numbers atop this list.

WINNING IS ALL THAT MATTERS

This one is not a favorite of ours because winning is a team sport. Quarterbacks on good teams will fare better while those in tougher situations don’t rate so well.

Contrary to what some might tell you, the Cowboys are a good team. And with Dak at the helm, the Cowboys win almost two-thirds of their games. That’s pretty good. How impressed you are with this depends on what you think of the supporting cast around him. If you think he has talent around him, this would be an expected result. If you think Dak is doing most of the heavy lifting, this would appear more impressive. However you spin it, Prescott helps win football games.

WINNING IN THE PLAYOFFS IS ALL THAT MATTERS

Nobody wants to hear about the Cowboys’ regular-season success. What’s really important is advancing in the playoffs, and the Cowboys just aren’t good at that. We don’t need a colorful purple chart to illustrate that, however, we’re giving it to you anyway. Mostly to show that these other guys haven’t been so clutch either. Prescott surprisingly finishes in the middle of the pack here.

This is why Joe Burrow gets the big bucks, right? A healthy Burrow resulted in two straight conference championship appearances, once advancing to the Super Bowl. He’s a winner, but none of these other guys are over .500 in winning percentage come playoff time. And both Herbert and Tagovailoa have lost every playoff game they’ve played.

OVERALL CONTRIBUTION

Pro Football Reference uses a metric called Approximate Value to describe a player’s contribution in any given season. When we divide their career AV by the number of games they’ve played and then multiply it by 100, here are the AV scores of these 10 quarterbacks.

Prescott finishes third in this category. This is a good metric because it also takes into account the impact a quarterback has with his legs which is why Jackson and Hurts rate higher.

FINAL RANKINGS

Individually, these metrics don’t amount to squadoosh. Collectively, they don’t mean a whole lot more, but it does provide some sense of what these quarterbacks have accomplished to this point in their careers. Here is each quarterback’s average ranking from all five of these categories.

Prescott finishes second between Jackson and Burrow. If I was a betting man (and I am), I would venture to say that Prescott’s new deal would fall somewhere between Jackson’s 19.2% cap cost and Burrow’s 20.3% cap cost. That roughly equates to a 19.8% price for Dak which, if you look at our handy dandy contract chart, that falls in line with a five-year, $290 million deal ($58M per).