Dallas City News

The more we examine the talent layout of the upcoming NFL draft, the more and more it seems that an offensive tackle will be the pick. According to NFL Mock Draft Database, eight offensive tackles are expected to come off the board in the first round, with five of them ranging from picks 18 to 30.

NFL Mock Draft Database

Could the Cowboys be fortuitous to have the stars line up so nicely for them after losing their star left tackle, Tyron Smith, in free agency? Possibly. However, nothing is a guarantee and you never know if there will be a run of tackles in the first run, and if so, the Cowboys need to have a contingency plan.

If the top tackles are all gone, then that means there stands a great chance that one of the draft’s top wide receivers will be available. The big three (Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze) are all projected to go top 10 in the upcoming draft, but that still leaves several stud receivers to choose from. Other first-round prospects include (rank in parenthesis):

• Brian Thomas Jr., LSU (18th)
• Adoniai Mitchell, Texas (29th)
• Xavier Worthy, Texas (31st)
• Ladd McConkey, Georgia (34th)
• Keon Coleman, Florida State (35th)
• Troy Franklin, Oregon (38th)

Now, all of these receivers won’t be drafted on Day 1, but many will as nine collegiate receivers are ranked in the top 40 of this draft class. Receivers have been a hot commodity in recent years as a total of 21 wideouts have been selected in the first round over the last four drafts. That’s averaging over five WRs per year and with a deep draft class this year, that’s not likely to change.

But just because the receivers look good, doesn’t mean they will be good. Over the last 10 drafts, there have been 43 wide receivers taken in the first round. How did they turn out? Let’s examine them by grouping them into the following categories…

• GREEN = great receivers (averaged over 750 yards per season)
• YELLOW = solid receivers (averaged between 550 and 750 yards)
• RED = busts (averaged less than 550 yards per season)

Here is how each of those 43 receivers rated:

If you break down the stats…

• 44% of them (19) turned out to be busts
• 37% of them (16) have shined
• 19% of them (8) are serviceable at best

It’s important to note that receivers taken over the last couple of years are still TBD as it’s too early to let the cement dry on them just yet. Jaxon Smith-Njigba could still very well turn into a star and Quentin Johnston shouldn’t be declared a bust just after one year. They have plenty of time to redirect their trajectory.

Those numbers don’t paint the greatest picture if you’re looking to land a top pass catcher in this draft. A team stands a better chance at drafting a bust than they do at landing a stud receiver. Every draft class is different and who you end up with depends largely on a team’s scouting department. The Cowboys have fared well when it comes to first-round receivers. They were wise enough to pull the trigger on CeeDee Lamb when others passed on him, they were smart enough to trade up for Dez Bryant, and they were clairvoyant enough to recognize the 2019 draft class was wide-receiver deficient enough to sway them to trade for Amari Cooper. Maybe the Cowboys will be fine. Maybe they can defy the odds and find one of the stars in this draft.

Offensive tackle remains high on the wish list and like we mentioned before, that stands a great chance of happening. If they get unlucky and it doesn’t pan out that way, then the Cowboys could find themselves playing the star receiver lottery.